Beyond the Tipping Point film
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We stimulate and support, thought and practice around hazard, risk and resilience. Internationally-recognised leaders in developing resilient, research-informed approaches to hazard and risk We are a world-leading research institute in hazard, risk and resilience based at Durham University. You can read the article here 14 Aug Lobell, M. Burke, Claudia Tebaldi , M. Mastrandrea, W.
Tipping Point | Definition of Tipping Point by Merriam-Webster
Falcon, and R. Naylor in Science, Vol. Oecologia - on November 15th, Type: Scientific. According to the new paper published in the journal Nature Geoscience , this could trigger a massive 8C rise in global average temperatures — in addition to the warming from increased CO2. However, scientists not involved in the research caution that the results are still speculative and that other complicating factors could influence if or when a tipping point is reached.
If fossil fuel use continues to rapidly expand over the remainder of the century, it is possible levels could get that high. The Representative Concentration Pathways 8. But this would require the world to massively expand coal use and eschew any climate mitigation over the rest of this century.
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They cool the Earth by shading its surface from incoming sunlight, reflecting much of it back to space before it reaches the surface. Stratocumulus cloud formation, Lower Saxony, Germany.
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Clouds have long been one of the main areas of uncertainty in global climate models. Clouds form and dissipate over scales that are smaller than can be resolved in current global climate models, which makes it difficult to predict how they will respond to future changes driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The researchers use this model to estimate how cloud properties might change as the world warms.
They found a striking result: in their simulations, stratocumulus cloud decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,ppm.
When these clouds break up they no longer shade the surface, triggering global warming of 8C — and as much as 10C in subtropical regions. This is in addition to the 5C or so of global warming above pre-industrial levels associated with 1,ppm CO2. In short, this warms the tops of the stratocumulus clouds — which are typically sustained by cooling at their tops.